I can hardly believe that it's November already! We're only weeks out from some major precursor awards that will begin to show just what shape the Oscar race will take at the start. Basically, this is the final calm before the storm, so an update to my predictions is due. There hasn't been a massive shift since previous update last month, but more than enough has changed. What follows is a quick rundown of some of the major movements in the race to prep you for the how and why of some of my predictions. You'll see the predicted nominations after that, but once again, don't read too much into them yet. Moves are still being made, so it's going to be somewhere in December before one can get a concrete sense of some categories.
Here are up-to-date predictions now for you to peruse now and ponder. I'll definitely be updating these again soon (possibly even before the end of the month), but for now, this is how I see things going down:
BEST PICTURE:
1. American Hustle
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. Saving Mr. Banks
6. Nebraska
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Her
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Blue Jasmine
DIRECTOR:
1. David O. Russell - American Hustle
2. Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
3. Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
4. Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips
5. Spike Jonze - Her
ACTOR:
1. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
2. Robert Redford - All is Lost
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
4. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
5. Bruce Dern - Nebraska
ACTRESS:
1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams - American Hustle
3. Sandra Bullock - Gravity
4. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
5. Adele Exarchopolous - Blue is the Warmest Color
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
3. Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks
4. Jeremy Renner - American Hustle
5. James Gandolfini - Enough Said
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler
2. Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
3. June Squibb - Nebraska
4. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
5. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. American Hustle
2. Her
3. Blue Jasmine
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Nebraska
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Before Midnight
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Blue is the Warmest Color
ANIMATED FEATURE:
1. Frozen
2. Monsters University
3. The Wind Rises
4. Ernest & Celestine
5. The Croods
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. Her
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Captain Phillips
4. Prisoners
5. Her
COSTUME DESIGN:
1. American Hustle
2. The Great Gatsby
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. Lee Daniels' The Butler
FILM EDITING:
1. Captain Phillips
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. Gravity
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING:
1. American Hustle
2. The Great Gatsby
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
SOUND MIXING:
1. Gravity
2. Rush
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Star Trek Into Darkness
5. Elysium
SOUND EDITING:
1. Gravity
2. Rush
3. Captain Phillips
4. Man of Steel
5. Pacific Rim
VISUAL EFFECTS:
1. Gravity
2. Man of Steel
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
5. World War Z
ORIGINAL SCORE:
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. Saving Mr. Banks
4. The Book Thief
5. Rush
ORIGINAL SONG:
1. Frozen (Let It Go)
2. Inside Llewyn Davis (Please Mr. Kennedy)
3. Frozen (For the First Time in Forever)
4. Her (The Moon Song)
5. The Great Gatsby (Young and Beautiful)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
1. Stories We Tell
2. Blackfish
3. Tim's Vermeer
4. The Square
5. 20 Feet from Stardom
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE:
1. Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)
2. Gloria (Chile)
3. The Past (Iran)
4. The Hunt (Denmark)
5. Omar (Palestine)
For those of you keeping count, these are the films that We have doing the best this time around: 12 Years a Slave leads the way still with 11 nominations. Right behind is American Hustle with nine nods, then Gravity with nine noms as well, plus Captain Phillips with seven again and both Her and Saving Mr. Banks with six. No other film gets more than five citations from me, so We've once again predicting a pretty split field, at least right now before the precursors ramp up.
This of course is just Our humble opinion in the end, so we'r very curious to find out what you think about the race. Are your predictions still mostly in line with ours? We are now/still backing something too strongly for your tastes? That's all part of the fun of making Oscar predictions! Sound off below!
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